Unread postby Freedomfight3r » 20 Dec 2010 15:08
South Korea isn't actually nuclear. They might have nuclear power plants, but they don't possess any nuclear weapons.
Likely series of events:
North Korea will send off a few more artillery shells as a warning to Seoul. Thus, making Seoul have the next move. Which gives them the option of:
1. Pursue Pyongyang with retaliation, declaring war in the process.
2. Clawing to diplomatic routes and begging the United States and friends to condemn Pyongyang's actions.
3. Continue military exercises in the region while also pursuing point 2. Which gives Pyongyang the next move, which would likely be further artillery attacks.
Scrap rational choice theory, this is all game theory.
IF a war was to break out, the West and Seoul would be inclined to avoid the use of nuclear weapons at all costs. As we don't know much about what goes on in Pyongyang, we can expect a lack of care for MAD and a potential launching of nuclear weapons/further artillery fire, various attacks, etc.
Pyongyang doesn't have a sea of allies willing to help, they've only got Beijing really. And they've very iffy about helping out in anything that involves North Korean aggression.
Seoul has the United States. Due to the 1953 MDT (Mutual Defense Treaty) the U.S. will be obliged to send more troops to the region. Or just send a few ICBMs into the region (Russia would just loooooooove to see nukes flying in their general direction like this...) obliterating the North, and helping us all bask in the fires of one thousand suns.
EDIT: Anyway, the likely outcome will be the North sending a few shots over, diplomacy going everywhere, resulting in the North getting a load of aid packages in return for a continued ceasefire, which is exactly what's happened every time something happened. Kim Jong-Il knows how to milk the diplomatic community.